Friday, January 31, 2020

Theros Beyond Busy

So, I, uh, promised an article about the MTG Theros Beyond Death release cycle for this week.  Tuesday came and went silently.  I was even halfway done with it, I had started fleshing out my notes while the prerelease was still underway.  But then something pretty awesome happened: Business went off on its super combo.
Let's recap in brief:

  • We sold the Theros prerelease to within one prerelease pack of an event sellout.
  • The prerelease scored the highest-revenue weekend in store history, beating the former champion, the Modern Masters 2017 release weekend.
  • Then the Theros release weekend finished in the top five in store history, resulting in...
  • ...the highest ten-day span of earnings ever for DSG, for any reason.  But that's not even all!
  • Dungeons & Dragons showed up, with the highest dice sales in a month in store history.
  • Pokemon showed up, with the most successful prerelease since we took them in-house and stopped using a third-party organizer back in 2018.
  • Buys showed up, with more cash out the door for Magic cards and video games in a month than ever before in, yep, store history.  And,
  • Not to bury the lede, but after months of process that I can't discuss, we finally cleared all the hurdles for direct distribution of brand-new video games and systems.  Our first batches of the current games and systems have already shown up and sales are well above expectations.  That inventory will grow organically.  Our first day-and-date new releases will arrive starting in late February and early March, due to the pre-order lead time, and will include Dreams (PS4), Final Fantasy VII Remake (PS4), Doom Eternal (PS4 and XB1), Animal Crossing New Horizons (Switch), and of course, Ori and the Will of the Wisps (XB1), for which we're hosting a release party on March 11th.

That was, in essence, my January, which I may as well tack on to the list above, is now the highest-earning month in store history, with the rest of today still to go.  Under the circumstances, I hope you will all forgive me both the tardiness of this post and the navel-gazing.  If I was ever going to gaze at a navel, this one right now seems like a good option.

And the busy hasn't ended yet.  Back to work for me.

Postscript: I am happy beyond all reason to be hosting a release event for Ori and the Will of the Wisps.  I know I've gushed about Ori and the Blind Forest many times here on this weblog, and I apologize to anyone who is tired of it.  Metroidvania platformers aren't for everyone, not even when they're combined with a musical score worthy of John Williams and a story worthy of Pixar.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Easy Return to the Playstation Ecosystem

So, if you're going to do business with modern-era video game consoles, it really helps to understand how their ecosystems work.  Not only do you need to be able to teach your staff to validate trade-ins by ensuring the system isn't banned and fully logs in to the network, but it also helps you recognize when a game de-listing is going to have market impact on a physical media version of that title, for example, among other information-asymmetry business benefits.  Familiarity is also good in general. Customers pick up on those cues.

While I am fully up to date on the Microsoft, Nintendo, and Apple online ecosystems, my understanding of Sony's digital offering has been rudimentary at best, because the last time I owned a Playstation, it was a PS2.  I resolved to get current when enough trade-ins made it feasible to do so without risking a missed customer sale.  Q4 2019 was good for that, so I've finally had an opportunity to delve a little deeper and catch up.  And that led to an interesting story of how I took great pains to avoid a problem that it turns out had a very simple solution.

To understand the problem, you have to understand how we got here, and I'm obnoxiously prolix and discursive so I'll do this in the form of a trip down memory lane.  Here we go:

Years ago, I spent more hours playing games on the Playstations 1 and 2 than I'm proud to admit.  I had to turn my SCPH-1001 upside down to get it to read discs properly, I had the DISC READ ERROR on my PS2 fat when I went to run an endurance track on Gran Turismo 3 and it was on the DVD second layer.  All the indicia of having eked every last ounce of fun out of a console, I had for those two.

The Nintendo 64 is retro-chic now but it wasn't that popular back then, except for the few games that were nuclear popular: Super Mario 64, Mario Kart 64, Goldeneye 007, Ocarina of Time, and so on.  Most of our day-to-day grist came in Playstation-land.  On PS1, of course, all the major fighters showed up, and I played truly absurd amounts of Street Fighter Alpha 2 and Darkstalkers.  But there was plenty more to enjoy on that system, my favorites of which were surely Gran Turismo, Vandal Hearts, and Symphony of the Night.  I had a Sega Saturn briefly, but shied away from modding it and ended up selling it on eBay, fight sticks and all.  This was a mistake, but ah well.

A few years later I was running my game stores, Wizard's Tower and Arizona Gamer, tales as told right here on The Backstage Pass.  As such I was a bit more focused on Magic and didn't deep-dive into Dreamcast, the launch of the PS2, or the Xbox and Gamecube.  But I caught up on them fast.

There was a lot going on in PS2-land, especially since it had launch exclusives on all the music games: Dance Dance Revolution, Karaoke Revolution, and a few years later, Guitar Hero.  I played a fair amount of other-genre games too, but those were my cocaine.  My friend Dalton, who I roomed with for a couple of years, got a Gamecube and we went full tilt on that, and of course Metroid Prime was a revelation.  My friend Vince got an Xbox and I was fairly indifferent to it at the time, but I did like its Robotech sims.

Around 2003-2004 I got modded units of Dreamcast and Xbox, and wow had I ever missed a lot of fun.  I've spent years after re-acquiring legit copies of those games to keep.  We would learn years later that these two systems shared a developer base, and the original Xbox amounted to, in essence, a "Dreamcast 2."  The thing that surprised me most were how much both systems overachieved when it came to system performance and catchy, fun games.  Blood Wake, Crazy Taxi 2, Soul Calibur, Street Fighter Alpha 3 and Third Strike, Colin McRae, and I even played some Halo 2 despite not being an FPS player.

When the Xbox 360 came along, I was fully in law school and had scant time for gameplay, and was more than content to spend brief leisure on my PS2.  The launch of the Nintendo Wii and Playstation 3 a year later was a study in contrasts: Everyone, but everyone, wanted a Wii, and it was mostly the Sony die-hards who were willing to tolerate a $600 launch price for a new Sony system that had serious developer architecture issues and extensive firmware problems but sure did come with a blu-ray drive.  I got married on January 27, 2007 (see? I barely even had to look that up) and we got a Wii from my friend John, which ranked pretty damned high among the wedding gifts.  It was an immediate success and I forgot about other video games briefly.  Then the Xbox 360 Elite landed, and Vince talked me into it.  And I dove in pretty eagerly because I had an HDMI-compatible LCD TV, which was a new and emerging thing at the time, and the 360 was my first source of HD content.  I just didn't need a PS3 for anything I could think of, at the time.

So, a cool thing is that you retain your purchase license (the term now used is your "entitlement") to Xbox digital purchases since the beginning, even if the game has been de-listed, provided you don't get your account permabanned by doing something like modding your console.  Apple is batting around 90% on this, they do "take things away" sometimes, but as they were the first to bring digital downloads to prominence, Apple can be forgiven; at first their offering was a one-time download on purchase.  They pushed the media rightsholders to understand that permanence was essential to get consumers to buy in, and Apple then retroactively granted full entitlements to most early purchases.  Nintendo was at the bottom of the heap for the Wii Virtual Console, if you lost it, or changed systems, or whatever, there went your downloads (at the time).  Not so on the Xbox 360.  Once I had my system stolen in a 2009 house burglary, and was able to recover all my digital games on its replacement, that was a pretty strong hook.  When I bought my X-Bone in 2017, everything that was on the backcompat list loaded right up, even 360 purchases from Elite launch day 2007.  Hexic.  It's still sitting right there.  I still play it sometimes.

Anyway, I spent the next few years developing DSG's video game business and having an Xbox One and a Switch as the daily drivers for home video game play.  Now, it was time at last for me to see how far the Playstation ecosystem had come since the days of yore when it consisted of everyone's PS2 and whatever discs from that and the PS1 that you had.

One of the issues I was warned about was that ever since PSN started allowing username changes, if you were using the same account on multiple systems (PS3, Vita, PS4) and you made a username change or possibly other account changes, you stood a risk of corrupting your account or system hardware, and Sony could/would only recover it if you had the serial number off the original system you created the account on.  Whoa.  Well, I don't do too well with hardware permanence these days.  Who does?  All our stuff is in the cloud.  Microsoft's answer in the 360 era was a license transfer.  In the XB1 era it's nothing at all.  You just designate your new X-Bone as your primary and any previous one you had was, functionally speaking, remote-wiped.  Apple?  All iCloud.

So realizing I wanted to keep my next PS system around as long as possible, I figured it would be a PS4 Pro, and I wanted to make sure I got the newer revision with the cooler and quieter power supply.  And naturally, none of those came in on trade.  (None still have.)  We have plenty of PS4s in stock, but not that version.  Those were only shipped in the Kingdom Hearts special edition and late 2019 core SKUs.  I didn't even care that much about the power of the Pro or anything, I just wanted as future-proof a box as available, to avoid account problems that were foreseeable.  In time a few decent Vitas (Vitae?) came along, and I have my luxury to pick a PS3 whenever.  Was I really going to have to buy a PS4 Pro new?  It wouldn't be the worst scenario, but I'm a guy who doesn't mind buying used merch to save a few bucks.

Aaaaaand it finally occurred to me to just make the account on the PSN website directly, on my iMac, that will remain in my family on a desk or table somewhere until it combusts.  And which, even if I lost it, I have abundant record of the serial number (surely it wouldn't matter for a computer-made account, but still).  And that's if that username bug/glitch/problem even applies to web-created accounts, which it probably doesn't.

And so I created the account.  And it was perfect, and took very little time.  And I could immediately start wishlisting up games to buy and planning my itinerary.  /forehead

After all that concern about planning how to mitigate hardware entropy, I could have just gotten started right from my desk.  Ah well, who knew.  Now it was time to explore this ecosystem and learn how it works and how it compares.

I trust Microsoft's entitlement permanence more than Sony's, and Sony still does have that 2011 data breach to live down, so multiplatform titles are usually going to be on my XB1S, and later my Series X, or if portability matters, my Switch.  But everyone knows Sony's calling card is great exclusives, and I got right on the trolley with flOw to test the account, and it's a relaxing little exclusive game that's well-suited to the Vita.

I picked flOw deliberately because it's a full cross-buy title.  I have to hand it to Sony, cross-buy was a welcome greeting, like Xbox Play Anywhere but for up to three systems rather than two (Xbox One and Windows 10 PC).  I paid once, and only six bucks for that matter since this was a casual title, and I gained the entitlements for flOw on Vita, PS3, and PS4.  That's... a lot of value.  Most cross-buy titles support only two of the three systems, but that's still great!  By contrast, Nintendo has nothing like this yet, and if I want multiple console entitlements in Xbox Live and I buy a backcompat Xbox 360 title, Microsoft forces me to pick whether it will be assigned to my XB1 or to my 360, and it can't download to both.  Only Apple's entitlement multiplier is better: you just get everything on every device, multiple devices per family member.  I paid ten bucks for the iOS Minecraft once, and all three kids have it full-blast on their iPads, and Steph and I could even download it if we so desired.  Which brings up: Family Sharing.

I haven't yet messed with PSN Family "Management" (Sharing), but I will need to, and it doesn't look too difficult.  Right now Apple's implementation is the easiest and most elegant, while still not being what I'd call "easy" in absolute terms.  But it works basically exactly as promised and is a strong system of account management, permissions, linked separate profiles, and parental control.  Nintendo's solution is comparably easy but not very powerful; you can't even give each kid their own passcode.  I have to leave payment methods unsaved on the Nintendo store because otherwise nothing in the software prevents the kids from hitting my credit card to buy content... including pay-to-play crack cocaine stuff that would tempt them to buy without permission from Mom and Dad.  There's a workaround involving using the parental controls passcode plus setting screen time to zero, but it proved cumbersome and I turned it off.  Microsoft's family sharing is the most difficult I've set up so far, requiring extensive verification and configuration, but it's extremely powerful, and the access management structure gets an A+ without hesitation.  So we'll see how the Playstation Family Management stacks up when I've had time to dive in.  For that, I probably will wait for my PS4 Pro, because that's what the kids are going to want to play on, and will be needed in any event to manage profiles for physical media games on all three Playstations.

For all this effort, paradoxically, the Playstation-exclusive library is very heavy on game genres I don't play.  I drank my fill of first-person shooters in the 1990s and early 2000s on PC.  I don't dislike sports games as such, but I don't tend to have the engagement level many of them demand.  And the most common of all, the over-the-shoulder 3D open-world action/adventure game?  I respect what they are, but I almost always find them tedious.  Previous eras saturated me on them and any time I'm playing some new Unreal Engine game, I just can't wait for it to be over and I often quit fairly early.  I know most players love those three genres, though, so I try to recognize great games within them and appreciate them on their merits anyway.  I prefer platformers (especially Metroidvanias), 2P fighters, rhythm games, auto racing both arcade-style and simulator, 2D shooters, puzzle games, retro arcade collections, the occasional oddball, classic WRPGs and JRPGs, and of course analog (physical) pinball.

And now, if you don't mind, I'm off to buy and sell some Playstation games and gear on behalf of the store... and when I get home, perhaps I'll indulge a bit for myself.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Hobby Comic and Game Store Closures, Second Half of 2019

We're back with another reminder that the sky is falling.

Oh, things may not be that dire when it comes right down to it.  But the industry saw a pronounced dip in Magic attendance and sales during Q4, and it would appear that was just enough pressure that some stores broke under the strain.  We've been waiting for some kind of market correction, and I can't prove that wasn't it.

For those of you tuning in for the first time, follow the link above and you'll become acquainted with these store closure lists, which I've been doing for a few years now.  What began as just curiosity and a way to commit to writing some of mine and my peers' concern about the state of the industry, has evolved into what is now, by far, the most read and shared series of recurring articles on The Backstage Pass.  So, thanks, I think?

Let's get on with the list and then I'll have some commentary.  Here are the stores that hung it up between July 1, 2019 and December 31, 2019, that I know about. As I regularly reiterate, my information sources are imperfect, but I am confident that this list does not fundamentally mischaracterize the situation. I required a firsthand-source announcement or evidence of the discovery of the store closed in order to add it to the list.  A store that changes ownership to an entirely different business entity is typically counted as a closure, though I will sometimes omit such an instance if there was zero change in the store branding.

Announced or Discovered Closed

  1. All Things Fun! (Berlin, NJ)
  2. Alpha Game Shop (San Fernando, CA)
  3. Beyond the Dungeon (Spring, TX)
  4. Big Daddy Games (St. Augustine, FL)
  5. Black Dragon Games LLC (Twin Falls, ID) appears to have survived!
  6. Black Moon Games (Rutland, VT) location in Lebanon, NH remains open
  7. Bull Street Comics (Temple Terrace, FL)
  8. Capital City Games (Springfield, IL)
  9. Card Academy (Columbus OH)
  10. Cardz Plus Mor (Clovis, CA)
  11. Chimera Games (Beeston, Nottingham, UK)
  12. The Citadel RPG and Gaming (Galion, OH)
  13. Cloud City Comics & Toys (Syracuse, NY)
  14. Comic Depot (Saratoga Springs, NY)
  15. Critical Strike Games (Edmonds, WA)
  16. Dabbers Games (Norcross, GA) new owner, new name, new location
  17. Dark Side Comics (Chelmsford, Essex, UK)
  18. Dave's Valet Cards (Cedar Springs, MI)
  19. Disctraders (Holland, MI)
  20. Dragon's Dice (Greeley, CO)
  21. The Dreaming Comics and Games (Seattle, WA)
  22. Dungeons & Drafts (Ft. Collins, CO) tax seizure
  23. Earth 383 (Elizabeth City, NC)
  24. Emerald City Comics (Eugene, OR) open 47 years
  25. Epic Comics & Collectibles (Maplewood, MN)
  26. Epic Loot (Centerville, OH) consolidating from 3 locations to 2
  27. Epikos Comics Cards Games (Hixson, TN)
  28. Ever Green Game and Hobby (Missoula, MT)
  29. The Final Dungeon (Woodstock, GA)
  30. Friction Fist Games (Briar Beach, FL)
  31. G2K Games (Waynesboro, VA)
  32. G2K Games (Morgantown, NC)
  33. G2K Games (Johnson City, TN)
  34. Game Force (Longmont, CO)
  35. Game Knight Café (Hamilton, OH)
  36. Game Night Games (The Colony, TX)
  37. Game On (Juneau, AK)
  38. Game On NJ (Clifton, NJ)
  39. Gamer's Cache (Mountain Home, ID) Survived and reopened this week!
  40. Gamer’s Haven (Cartersville, GA)
  41. Gamer's Heaven (Manhattan, KS)
  42. The Gamery at Freaks and Geeks (Thunder Bay, ON, Canada)
  43. Gamet1me (Winston Salem, NC)
  44. Game Time Miniatures (Cincinnati, OH)
  45. The Gaming Goat (Henderson, NV)
  46. The Gaming Goat (Woodbury, MN)
  47. Gateway Games (Mesa, AZ)
  48. Heroic Knight Games (Issaquah, WA)
  49. Hollow Mountain Comics and Games (East Lansing, MI)
  50. Imaginary Worlds Comics (Cleveland Heights, OH)
  51. The Iscevari Marketplace (Owatonna, MN)
  52. The Island Games (Centreville, VA)
  53. Jacksonville Game Center (Jacksonville, FL)
  54. Joe Garage Games (Suwanee, GA)
  55. The Junction Games (Rocklin, CA)
  56. Kapow Comics & Games (Lethbridge, AB, Canada)
  57. LANSlide Game Center (Clinton, MD)
  58. LAN World Gaming (Maplewood, MN)
  59. Last Life Games LLC (Clare, MI)
  60. Legacy Games (Rosemount, MN)
  61. Level Up Games (Eagan, MN) 2 closing 2 remaining
  62. Level Up Games (South St Paul, MN) 2 closing 2 remaining
  63. Level Up Gaming (Oceanside, CA)
  64. Lindsay's Gamer Garrison (Wauconda, IL)
  65. Loot Games and Comics (Coral Springs, FL)
  66. Mattress Max (Ludington, MI)
  67. Meeples Restaurant and Cafe (Richmond, KY)
  68. Moonbase Market (St. Louis, MO)
  69. Mystical Mayhem (Springfield, OR)
  70. One Last Life (Claremont, NH)
  71. Outflank Games (Fairfield, CA)
  72. Paradox Games (Nampa, ID)
  73. Pegasus Games (Madison, WI) Fast re-open under new ownership
  74. Peristil Cards (Clearwater, FL)
  75. Phase 1 Comics & Games (Tomball, TX)
  76. Pipe Dream Toys (Winona, MN)
  77. PLAYlive Nation (McCall, ID) Franchise has other locations
  78. Pop Stop Collectibles (Fresno, CA)
  79. Proceed Clockwise (London, England, UK)
  80. Rogue's Roost (Loveland, CO)
  81. Rook & Rogue Board Game Pub (Bellingham, WA)
  82. Second Star Games (Prescott, AZ)
  83. The Sleek Geeks (Columbus, OH)
  84. Sparta Games (Omaha, NE)
  85. Starlite Gaming (Summerville, NC) 2 locations both closed
  86. Stomping Grounds Game Shop (Baltimore, Michigan)
  87. Stuffnpodunk Games (Belleview, FL)
  88. Tap Two Blue (Los Angeles, CA)
  89. TCB Games (Marion, IN)
  90. Titan's Vault (Calgary, AB, Canada)
  91. Tom Frantzen Sports Collectibles (Roseville, MN)
  92. TPK Gaming (Glen Ellyn, IL)
  93. Valhalla Hobbies & Games (Stockton, CA)
  94. Wonderland Games (Lake Charles, LA)


Well then. As of this article's first publication, that list was 87 stores long, and customarily people send me updates in the days and weeks to follow so you can see above where we ended up at the time you happen to be reading this article.

Here are a few I already know about for the January through June 2020 article:

  • Dragon's Lair WarGames and Hobby Supplies (Shreveport, LA)
  • Gamers Vault (Montgomeryville, PA)
  • Wandering Havoc Games (Marysville, WA)
  • Wizards Keep Games (Renton, WA)

As I've mentioned before, there are some things you need to understand before you draw conclusions from a store closing list like the ones I publish.

First, these are only the store closings that I know about.  How does that proportion to the total number out there?  We honestly don't know.  No single entity, not even the GAMA trade organization, is tracking the number of comic and hobby game stores out there.  (And it's entirely possible they couldn't do it if they wanted to, logistically speaking.)  As an industry, we don't really even agree on what is the definition of a comic and hobby game store.  You can walk into a pawnshop these days and find Magic cards and video games.  You can walk into a thrift store and find those plus comic books.  You can walk into a bookstore and buy a copy of Catan or Ticket to Ride.  For the purposes of game stores I personally observe, such as in the way-outdated Phoenix Metro Area store article on your sidebar, I include any store that is primarily engaged with one of our industry's major categories, and I exclude pure bookstores, mass market, pawns, and thrifts.  It's not a perfect method but it's the one we've got.  Wizards of the Coast reports there are 6,000 WPN stores in the world, which gives us a sort of inner bound to our range; plenty of comic shops and video game stores don't sell Magic cards.  Alliance Game Distributors and Diamond Comic Distributors likely have very comprehensive lists of stores that are out there and their guess at the total closures will be nearer the mark than mine.  But they aren't talking.

Second, some amount of churn is normal.  How much of this list is normal churn, attributable to ordinary business attrition?  Again, I'm afraid I have to answer that we honestly don't know.  The most valid analyses we can do on this information would be comparing the lists with one another and looking for correlations, trends, that sort of thing.  They were compiled essentially the same way, the flow of information on social media hasn't appreciably changed in nature or velocity since 2017, and the industry is not severely different since then.  I don't think we'll be able to take those precedent conditions for granted if I'm still riffing this thing in, like, 2024.  But by then we'll all be underwater anyway, according to climate pundits.

Third, while some of these stores absolutely deserved to fail and close, others have been veritable local institutions for years or even decades and ran well for a long time, while still others might have been shorter-lived but were making an honest go of things and were unfortunate enough to get blindsided by some bad circumstance.  I won't name names for the deserved-to-die category, but one of this article's "honorees" took five figures in customer pre-orders for Modern Horizons and then absconded with the cash, leaving their players empty-handed.  That's a fairly strong indicator of malicious intent.

The reality is that most small business owners don't have experience failing in small business, because people who do so once, generally never enterpreneur again.  They might not be able to raise any capital to do so, even if they aren't emotionally disinclined to repeat the harrowing ordeal.  This means that most store owners don't know the warning signs very well and are vulnerable to their store's cash situation getting bad more suddenly than they can withstand.  Sometimes these are things they could have recovered from if they had only known the importance of some factor or other that they were seeing, and didn't act upon, ahead of time.  Two or three new release waves of some line, underselling just enough not to cover.  Placing a large terms order ahead of a blizzard and being on the hook for it while the store sits closed.  Systematic employee embezzlement that's hidden in the one metric the owner hasn't checked in a while.  Whatever.  By the time they realize how bad their situation is, it's too late.

I rarely look at my failures in prior attempts in this industry (and others) as positive things, but they absolutely are when the chips are down.  I've made plenty of pivots lately that might seem extreme from an outside vantage point, such as taking an extended break from Warhammer last fall, because I was able to apprehend that if I didn't move that rook out of there, Entropy had checkmate against me in like eleven moves.  All kinds of things could have happened in the interim, of course.  Don't ever assume that no intermediary events will be proximate.  But you have to make decisions every day in business using the best imperfect information you have, and that includes a lot of Occam's Razor in your outcome trees, assuming the simplest and most likely results will end up true.  And if a trend line is defaulting to bust, you must pivot.  Never be on an inside straight draw to survive.

All you can do every day in business is hope your decisions prove out.  There is a long list of stores above owned by people who mostly did their level best to keep the party going, but ultimately came up short.  There's no guarantee you will do any better than they did.  You may hope to learn from observation what has worked or not worked for them or others, so that when you're watching the numbers and you have a hunch there's trouble brewing, you will recognize the necessity to act.  Until then, may your road be calm and smooth, and filled with corn somehow.